CHINA / Foreign Media on China
Is the US plunging into 'historical error'?
(International Herald Tribune)
Updated: 2006-06-01 09:44
Once upon a time, there was a superpower jealous of the unrelenting
modernization of its rival. Now it may be time to update this tale, which
like many fables has a strong element of truth to it.
For the next decade or two there will continue to be only one superpower
in the world, the United States. China's rise to superpower status seems
all but inevitable, but what is remarkable is that China is the country
whose modernization is unrelenting, while the United States, not even
seriously challenged yet, appears tempted to follow the Soviet example.
Put another way, unless things are thought through more clearly, the
United States could let insecurity undermine its self-confidence,
plunging toward what the Chinese are fond of calling "a historical error."
This is why the latest Pentagon assessment of China's military strength,
released last month, makes for such interesting reading. The 50-page
report speaks of a China determined to achieve parity with the United
States and to become "the preeminent power among regional states in East
Asia."
One wonders, first, about the choice of language. What does the term
"regional state" mean, for example?
And what, moreover, is unusual about China being the pre-eminent power in
this part of the world - a position that has obtained throughout most of
this country's long history?
More worrisome, though, is the thought that a report like this
constitutes the opening elements in a drum roll intended to motivate the
American taxpayer for a new round of military spending with a new
putative enemy - or let's call it strategic rival.
The reflex to spend on the military in the United States in response to
challenges of any or every kind is hard to cure, and may never be
entirely overcome. What is to be feared, though, as deficits mount and
spending on other productive areas continues to be neglected, is that it
could ultimately contribute to the country's downfall.
A paranoid would be tempted to suspect China of baiting the United States
into an arms race - of using a classic game theory ploy to feign sweeping
modernization in order to get the Americans to overreact in ruinous ways.
The problem is we've never needed encouragement to overindulge the needs
of the iron triangle.
The Pentagon document makes much of double-digit growth in Chinese
military spending, but takes its time in making the point that the arms
budget is growing more slowly than government spending overall. To be
sure, China is no slouch in arms spending, committing $35 billion to its
military last year, or 1.5 percent of its gross domestic product, using
official Chinese figures.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies gives a
higher and probably more realistic estimate, putting Chinese military
spending at 2.7 percent of GDP in 2003. This should be compared with
American spending of 3.7 percent of GDP - a vastly larger GDP.
More interesting still is how China and the United States approach
military spending. China, conscious of its daunting social needs, and
more important, of the fact that "catching up" with the United States is
not essentially a military endeavor, is building on the cheap. Advanced
weapons systems are bought from Russia, rather than home grown. All sorts
of things are cobbled together and reverse-engineered. Other items, like
prohibitively expensive aircraft carriers, have been forgone altogether.
Contrast that with the Pentagon's penchant for extravagance on new
weapons acquisition. Even where old weapons systems are concerned, self-
denial often seems missing from the vocabulary.
As Leslie Wayne reported recently in The New York Times, even as America
builds dubious new systems, like the $200 million-per-unit C-17
Globemaster III cargo plane, Congress has prevented the retirement of old
aircraft, from aging B-52 bombers to U-2 reconnaissance planes.
Space is often a proxy for military spending, and another area of
traditional superpower competition. In this regard, the Chinese space
program provides another compelling example. There has been near panic in
some Pentagon circles about suggestions by Chinese and American diplomats
that the two countries should cooperate on exploration and research.
Voices warn about the risks of divulging precious, closely held
technology. Here's a radical suggestion: embrace the Chinese request for
cooperation so as to pry away one of Beijing's most valuable secrets.
That is, how does China manage to put together a manned lunar exploration
program that is progressing brilliantly on a budget that wouldn't keep
the whole of NASA functioning for a year?
NASA's budget for 2007 is $16.8 billion. Officially, China has spent 19.3
billion yuan on space programs of all kinds over the past 13 years. A
dollar gets you roughly 8 yuan - unless you're in the space business.
The United States is planning for a China whose military strength will
grow steadily in the years ahead. Taiwan, in particular, will remain a
dangerous fault line, requiring both vigilance and consummate diplomatic
skills on both sides.
But the question is whether the United States is wrong to understand that
China's challenge is primarily military. It is in the realms of
productivity, knowledge and ideas that the real jousting will take place
over the next couple of decades.
In many ways, East Asia has still not emerged from the Cold War, with a
Korea still divided, a Japan at odds with its neighbors over territory
and history, and a China with a fast molting economy and anachronistic
political system.
Test China on the basis of its self- proclaimed "peaceful rise," to begin
building a new security architecture in this part of the world that takes
into account both countries' legitimate interests.
In the meantime, focus on modernizing your economy, upgrading the skills
of your workforce and polishing your ideas for the long competition ahead.
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